How likely is it for a person to develop arthritis from rubella vaccine?

Arthralgia (joint pain) and transient arthritis (joint redness or swelling) following rubella vaccination occurs only in people who were susceptible to rubella at the time of vaccination. Joint symptoms are uncommon in children and in adult biological males. About 25% of non-immune post-pubertal biological females report joint pain after receiving rubella vaccine, and about 10% to 30% report arthritis-like signs and symptoms.

When joint symptoms occur, they generally begin 1 to 3 weeks after vaccination, usually are mild and not incapacitating, last about 2 days, and rarely recur.